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Thursday, September 15, 2011

"Keep radio relevant", says Wells Fargo analyst Marci Ryvicker at Radio Show

Marci Ryvicker at 2011 Radio Show Ryvicker opened up Day 2 of the RAB/NAB Radio Show in Chicago at the Dickstein Shapiro session, and presented some sobering statistics for radio:

- The stocks of public radio companies are down about 33% in the last month, compared to a 13% drop in the S&P 500 index. Marci Ryvicker says to the breakfast group "You keep going two steps forward, one step back", and says "radio has even underperformed other traditional-media stocks." But she says "radio has the best free cash flow characteristic", so there is potentially "tremendous upside."

- "We don't have a double dip" in the U.S. economy", says Ryvicker. "We have sluggish growth."

- Wells Fargo revenue forecasts for radio: "Total radio down 1% this year, up 3% in 2012." Some of the good news: "Radio has actually increased its share of local advertising", though its share of total advertising has declined somewhat.

- Radio's four opportunities for growth lie in #1, automotive advertising, #2, non-traditional revenue, #3, getting a larger share of political dollars, and #4, "better messaging to advertisers and investors." Ryvicker says bluntly that "the message of terrestrial radio has not been a great one", while the many other competitors are increasingly competing for Americans' time. Time spent listening to radio is down 6% in the last three years, while TV viewing time is up 4%. The Dickstein Shapiro session was moderated by its Lew Paper, with sponsorship by Media Services Group.

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