Is shorter smarter – or suicidal?Shorter-length spots are suddenly hot topics among the group heads.
Hey, Rupert…not so fast.
“Arbitron has massive problems with PPM samples in Philadelphia and Houston.”Cox Radio’s Bob Neil has shot-gun blasts for Arbitron, going on record with the stuff he’s been saying in private – and this time he uses the very public forum of his own 2Q conference call. I’ll let Bob speak for himself: “We continue to believe the PPM has challenges, and we’re working pretty diligently in trying to point those out.” But he was just warming up with that, and later says “There are some sampling issues with Hispanics and African-Americans” and he charges that Arbitron’s already running into serious problems keeping its panel stable. And that “some of their excuses are contradictory” and don’t hold up, as far as Bob’s concerned. Like the one about Summer causing drops in the numbers. Neil says “The declines started two months before Summer started.” Then the group head works up a real head of steam – The Arbitron pledge to educate the ad-buyers “turned out to be a load of dog manure.”I’m told that at least one transcript of yesterday’s “CXR” conference call doesn’t contain that pungent phrase, but I heard it live, and then went back and checked the recording, at the point where Bob Neil responds to Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes. When Cox put its John Hancock on the new Arbitron PPM/diary contract, it put Arbitron on notice that it would be a demanding customer – and now Bob Neil says “be careful what you wish for” – speaking directly to Arbitron. He says Arbitron’s repeated promises to inform the ad community about the “one time adjustment” in Cost Per Point “turned out to be a load of dog manure…it’s just not true.” Okay, how does Arbitron respond? I asked them – “Arbitron conducted 240 station trainings and nearly 200 agency trainings…”And that was just in the first six months of 2007, it says. And even in 2006, “we still managed to conduct about 200 trainings, station and agency combined”, concentrated in the “first-up” markets of Houston and Philly. Arbitron gets even more specific. From October 2006 to June 2007, it says it trained 234 planner buyers. 284 media planners. 701 media buyers. And 451 people in agency management. Then there were the “self-paced web training and Web-Ex-type events”, and after all that, Arbitron insists it’s “invested a lot of time, money and effort to train both the station and the agency community.” Those stats were presented at least week’s Radio Advisory Council meeting in Charlottesville. Arbitron makes one more point (and underlines it, in the note they sent me): “Training the agencies does not preclude them from testing radio to see if they can get lower prices.” It says “how radio responds to this pressure will be important to the outcome.” And on Bob Neil’s point about problems with the panels, Arbitron says T-R-I and others have already written about it and “this is not news…We will continue to work with clients on ways to continuously improve our methodology and execution.” Back to Bob Neil’s call: “We’re not gonna put up with a crappy product.”And it’s not just the numbers that vary from the long-established ranges of the diary, or the problems with the panels in Philly and Houston. It’s also what happens after that. Bob Neil says he’s “troubled about the sales side of this”, as agencies are seizing the opportunity to demand makegoods and lower rates based on the PPM numbers. He predicts “there’s going to be some really bad consequences, if everybody wakes up” to see lower numbers. As for which formats do better in the People Meter system, it’s ironic that in Houston, Cox has the formats that tend to show up best – country, AC, classic hits/oldies – and it’s the one operator who looked the best in the first PPM results. So this isn’t a case of sour grapes caused by bad ratings. Cox should be thrilled about the People Meter, just in the short-term. But Bob Neil isn’t afraid to point out the problems he sees with the Emperor’s new clothes. I think Neil’s one of the group heads that analysts really enjoy questioning, and he gave them plenty more – The proposed performers royalty “is the silliest thing I ever heard of.”Neil says “the reality is, a lot of those people [musicians lobbying for a new royalty] would be sitting in a shack somewhere, in a small town, if it weren’t for radio supporting their music.” Those may be fighting words for some musicians and the labels, but Bob says the royalty is “silly – I don’t know any other word to describe it.” The analyst who asked the question didn’t disagree. One analyst – almost bewildered – calls Cox “completely underleveraged.”He can’t understand why a public company would operate at a two-times level (debt at two times cash flow). CFO Neil Johnston calmly says “We like it” that way. It certainly gives Cox lots of dry powder and room to maneuver, when contemplating things like may buying the Lincoln Financial Media stations. Johnston won’t talk about acquisitions but says those “are very well-run stations”, meaning that a buyer may not be able to push down the accelerator there. (Though I still think Cox has to be considered in the lead for any possible sale of most of the LFM radio properties – it’s just a natural fit.) How about the rest of the Cox numbers? Local revenues rose 1%, national was down 1%, Internet revenues (which Bob Neil’s jazzed about) grew 21% and now comprise close to 2% of total revenues. Atlanta, Miami and Orlando were stars. Atlanta revenues rose 6%, against the market being down 2% for the quarter. Birmingham jumped 32% (the company didn’t mention the addition of Rick & Bubba, but that’s got to be one major reason). Greenville-Spartanburg, SC is up 29%. While there was “weakness” in Houston and Jacksonville. How about the current quarter? Bob Neil says July probably finished “down somewhat”, August is “positive” so far and September is flat.
Going into the second half of 2007, Entercom is building…and waiting.Waiting for FCC approval on some purchases, which CEO David Field hopes can close by late September. Entercom’s also building, in areas like its digital initiative. They’re staffing up, and Field says for the first time (in the just-ended second quarter) Entercom produced more than 1% of its total revenues from digital. They’re also hiring in the business development area, and looking for deals like the one they’ve got signed in Boston – where the Red Sox baseball network is now the Shaw’s [Supermarket] network. Another thing Entercom is building is its corporate stash of “ETM” stock. CFO Steve Fisher says they’ve now bought back a total of 27% of their own stock, and he tells analyst Eileen Furukawa they’re starting to think about how much of it they should own, in total. Entercom also continues as one of radio’s more aggressive dividend-payers. Meanwhile, Entercom waits to see what will happen with the highly-desirable stations of the Lincoln Financial radio group. Field – who still probably has stare-at-the-ceiling moments about losing the ABC Radio deals to Citadel – says “I’d be perfectly happy walking away with nothing” from Lincoln. How about individual markets? Seattle is robust. Ditto for markets like New Orleans and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. While Denver’s a bit more relaxed place now, as everybody there appreciates the turnaround following last year’s 9% drop in overall market revenue. Entercom keeps betting on sports.
Journalists welcome House action on a federal shield law.“Journos” watched last year’s jailing of New York Times reporter Judith Miller on contempt charges, and Patrick Fitzgerald leaning on other reporters, and grew fearful about the future. Yesterday the House Judiciary Committee voted out the Free Flow of Information Act of 2007, with strong bipartisan support. There’s an identical Senate bill, and NAB’s Dennis Wharton says the House committee vote recognizes “broadcast journalism’s rich history of keeping the public informed.” The FCC’s getting a teensy bit touchy about its ownership proceeding.I don’t have a clue whether yesterday’s T-R-I story about a Fall rulemaking penetrated the Portals, but they issued this odd statement from spokesperson Mary Diamond yesterday: “While some are complaining about inaction on this item, it is worth noting that it has been before the Commission and awaiting their vote since October of last year.” True – though Commissioners Copps and Adelstein would like to hold public hearings about it until all the glaciers melt. David Honig gets the Commission to pay attention to his small-business idea.T-R-I told you last week about Honig’s idea, on behalf of the Minority Media and Telecommunications Council – that Uncle Sam could let an oversize grandfathered cluster be sold as it is, with the understanding that the buyer would have perhaps a year to find a qualified small business to buy the station or stations that put the buyer over the limit. And whaddya know? Late yesterday the FCC issued a Second Further Notice asking for input on ideas just like Honig’s. Comments are due October 1 and reply comments October 16. That’s the same schedule as the comment period for the 10 research studies that are also part of the long-delayed ownership proceeding. Lookee…IMMI does its consumer research using cellphones that detect digital signatures.I hadn’t heard of San Mateo-based Integrated Media Measurement, but it “provides thousands of panel members around the country with a mobile phone, asking them to carry it wherever they go.” Sounds a little like The Media Audit/Ipsos concept for electronic ratings, doesn’t it? The one Arbitron has eschewed. IMMI says the cellphone carries “a technology that creates digital signatures of all the audio media (TV, radio, movies) to which it has been exposed.” And even further, IMMI’s system “can determine viewing audiences, as well as certain types of consumer behavior, based on a timeline of when the media was viewed or heard.” Note that IMMI’s not trying to produce ratings. I happened to notice their methodology in the lower part of their release about how radio “was one of the driving forces in getting people to go see the film” “Knocked Up.” And how people “who were exposed to both television and radio advertising for the movie were more than twice as likely to see the movie than people who had only been exposed to TV commercials.” Nice radio story there, right? And fascinating to read about their cellphone-based research. They’re at www.IMMI.com. Sound Bites:Daniel Snyder’s Red Zebra picks up an AM in Tidewater Virginia, for more sports. It’s WLRT, Hampton and it’s already simulcasting (via LMA) future sister’s WXTG-FM’s sports format, and thus clearing much of the lineup of Fox Sports Radio. Spring 2007 Quarterly Ratings
Click on the city to review recently released trends. For a complete list of markets, click here. Faces on the Radio:
* More T-R-I this morning - a full four pages of news.phone, asking them to carry it wherever they go.” Your Email OptionsYou are receiving this email at ##insert_user_email_address_here## because you subscribed at radio-info.com for the Taylor On Radio-Info newsletter. ArchivesTo view or print past issues of Taylor on Radio-Info, please click here. Contact Tom TaylorBy e-mail at TomTaylor@in3media.com or by phone at 609-883-3321 How to AdvertiseTo learn about advertising or other creative partnerships, contact Michelle Jasko at 615-673-3465 or by e-mail at MichelleJasko@in3media.com.
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Entercom’s David Field – a proponent – and Cox Radio’s Bob Neil – a skeptic – show the two sides of the coin, just hours apart yesterday. Field says “the demand continues to grow” though he admits the strategy “has had some modest impact” – negative – on revenues. He says “some advertisers have taken savings into their own pockets, or into other media.” But he’s confident that shorter-length spots will be “a very positive trend, and [just] modestly disruptive in the short run.” Bob Neil couldn’t disagree more and says “Look at the companies that have been the most aggressive – Clear Channel and CBS.” He says their revenues aren’t really growing and Cox “did as good as they did, with about half the units to sell.” Neil believes that if you teach buyers to buy a :30 spot for 75% the :60 rate “They’ll say ‘Thanks’” and take the 25% elsewhere. So that (he says) becomes the new “mindset” – and “other people are going to have to wake up and realize it’s not a good idea.”
You get the flavor of sometimes-maverick FCC Commissioner Michael Copps’ statement from this: “It’s interesting to hear the ‘experts’ claim the transaction [Rupert Murdoch buying Dow Jones] faces no regulatory hurdles. Not so fast! This deal means more media consolidation and fewer independent voices, and it specifically impacts the local market in New York City.” Democrat Copps says “We should immediately conduct a careful factual and legal analysis” to protect the public interest (“I hope nobody views this as a slam-dunk”). You’d think activist Copps is just a lone voice in the wilderness, except…News Corp. still has that cross-ownership situation in New York, owning a TV duopoly (Channels 5 and 9) plus the New York Post. It’s got waivers now, but Copps wants to reduce Big Media, not let it have Happy Meals. This is probably just about the last thing Kevin Martin wants to tackle right now. Lots of issues in Washington today – and also some strong and colorful words said out in the open by Cox Radio’s Bob Neil about Arbitron’s People Meter and the proposed performance royalty. Let’s get right to it -
Oh, legally, legally – not like a certain NBA referee. Last year Entercom wowed the Boston market by re-signing the Red Sox at a stratospheric level (though David Field says a lot of that impact for this year will be gone by fourth quarter). And this week Entercom is able to bring Kansas City Royals baseball back to its cluster for a five-year deal, after the franchise was across the street at locally-owned Union Broadcasting. David Field says it’s “a modest investment”, because the team continues to sell the play-by-play inventory, though there are some revenue opportunities for Entercom. Looks like Entercom’s push in Kansas City is to help its newish sports station, KCSP (610). Up in Boston, Entercom’s exhaling with relief, because it just shifted the Red Sox from sports WEEI over to WRKO – apparently without denting WEEI, which David Field says remains #1 25-54 men and even #1 with 25-54 adults. He’s hoping WRKO is the beneficiary of getting baseball in a red-hot baseball market – though nobody on the conference call asked him about the potential effect of losing the high-billing Howie Carr in PM drive. Howie’s wriggling hard to get free of ’RKO and cross to Greater Media’s WTKK this Fall, and filed suit last month. Did Entercom file a countersuit?
Meryl Gitter Michon is the new member of the “Wake Up With Whoopi” morning team based at WKTU, New York. And yes – Whoopi is indeed taking a “day job”, joining the permanent cast of ABC-TV’s “The View.” As Premiere folks have been saying for some time, Ms. Goldberg continues with her Premiere-syndicated morning radio show.