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Taylor on Radio-Info

by Tom Taylor | tom@in3media.com | 609.883.3321

Tuesday, November 25th 2008

Shakeout, for real?

Lew Dickey Lew Dickey’s familiar “36 month-shakeout” prediction may finally be coming true.

The Cumulus CEO has been prophesying dramatic consolidation for years. He once foresaw “another wave of consolidation in the next 12 to 18 months” – and that was in August 2003. But now the economy is probably about to make it happen, for real. Lew’s latest comments in the Atlanta Business Chronicle got picked up by MSNBC.com, so Americans heard stuff like this – “I think there’s going to be a pretty big shakeout and I think that half the companies in business today will be gone within 36 months.” I think he’s talking about major groups – not mom-and-pops and not the non-coms. Cumulus was constructed by Lew and then-partner Richard Weening to be one of the surviving consolidators. The current problem is – Lew’s stock at Cumulus is worth 59 cents (yesterday’s closing price) and he can no longer use the stock as currency for deals. He does reassure the Atlanta biz-paper that Cumulus is in fine shape with its covenants and has ample borrowing capacity. Lew tried to go private last year but was forced to call that off as the perfect storm gathered. He could still go private, bit by bit – but either way, he dreams of being one of the surviving consolidators.

Patrick Communications
“Centralizing” looks to be one of the big words of 2009.

Centralizing back office functions, in the rumored case of far-flung groups like Clear Channel. Centralizing morning shows, ditto Clear Channel and some others. Perhaps even centralizing Christmas music (see the next story). If “consolidation” was a buzz word starting with the 1996 Telecommunications Act, then “centralization” may succeed it in 2009 – because owners now have to pay for all the “consolidation.” Speaking of Christmas music –

WLTW 106.7 Some Clear Channel stations took the “second early option” to go Christmas yesterday.

That was the Monday before Thanksgiving, and it’s the option chosen by “Lite 106.7” WLTW in New York. The “first early option” was the previous Monday. Some Clear Channel programmers were also throwing in “sneak peak” weekends, partly to get the audience juiced up for the holidays and partly to play mindgames with the competition. Of course other groups plot similar games, often involving weekend-only holiday programming. For instance, Greater Media’s “Now 97.5” WNUW briefly went all-Christmas on the Friday following the Phillies’ World Series parade – then reverted to “A younger approach to today’s soft rock” Monday morning. They might’ve hoped to impel Jerry Lee’s WBEB (101.1) to jump, but not a chance. Where does the Christmas music come from? Not the North Pole, but (if you’re a Clear Channel station) Cincinnati. That’s where the main server is located and most CC stations that are going all-Christmas get a Selector database with pre-programmed logs. I’m told that if the local PD wants to salt in some regional favorites, he or she needs to check with the Regional VP of programming. Things are different at the large-market stations like New York’s “Lite” – but again, there’s going to be more and more centralization.

Elephant and Five Blind Men So back to yesterday’s “blind men describing an elephant” story about Clear Channel…

Apparently I scared the bejeebers out of some people (I heard about it from coast to coast), and I want to emphasize that I’m hearing dribs and drabs of what sounds like a dramatic plan to cut costs, and fairly soon. Obviously San Antonio would rather that I not be writing about this (it’s speculation), though they haven’t picked up the phone to chat. I do continue to hear about potential cuts in sales and the back office – that “centralization” thing again. And I do hear that perhaps the “15 programming options” might have to do with morning shows available on a regional basis. (If your local show’s not cutting it, you’ll have various syndicated shows to choose from.) It does appear increasingly likely that several companies, not just Clear Channel, are looking extra-hard at locally-produced airshifts outside of drivetimes. (Ironic, given how strong middays look in the PPM.) And no doubt – everybody’s feeling the pinch of the economy. T-R-I will continue trying to figure out just what the elephant looks like.

WGN’s choice to wake up Chicagoland – current afternoon guy John Williams.

Spike O’Dell really meant it when he said he wanted to retire at the end of his morning-show contract in December. That set WGN (720) GM Tom Langmyer and his staff off on a talent hunt for a very important job. It was expected they’d go with an internal candidate, and that turns out to be afternoon host John Williams. He joined ’GN in 1997 and took over afternoons in 2000 after Bob Collins’ death in a small-plane crash, when Spike got mornings. John Williams has just a few weeks to set up to TIVO his favorite nighttime TV shows – he takes over the 5-9am shift on December 15.

Alan Colmes On Fox News, it will be Hannity without Colmes.

Alan Colmes will continue hosting his Fox News-syndicated daily radio show as well as commentaries and a possible new weekend show for Fox News Channel – but maybe he’s tired of being the designated liberal punching bag on “Hannity & Colmes.” Heck, after 12 years, he may just be tired, period. Fox says he approached Senior VP Bill Shine about stepping away from “Hannity & Colmes”, and Alan says “it’s bittersweet to leave one of the longest marriages on cable.” Roger Ailes says Alan’s “one of the key reasons why Fox News has been such a remarkable success.” The Times recalls that during the development period for what became “Hannity & Colmes”, the production crew called it “Hannity and LTBD” – Liberal to be Determined. For 12 years, that was Colmes. Alan’s 10pm-1am radio show was one of the first places you could hear liberal talk on the radio in recent times, before Air America and the current generation of libtalkers. The Radio-Info.com News/Talk board is one place to talk about the change. Discuss It

Analyst Jim Boyle says radio’s 2008 is so bad – it feels like 1954.

That’s when the Lone Ranger was Hi-Yo Silvering away from radio for television, and CL King analyst Boyle says 1954 was the last year that radio revenue fell as much as it’s likely to this year – about 9%. Radio dropped an average of 7% in 2001, following the dot-com bust and then 9/11. (But 2001 faced an impossibly good “comp” year of 2000.) Year-to-date, Boyle says radio in 2008 is off 7% and could finish close to 1954’s single-year decline-rate of 9%. Jim calls October “discouraging” (all those RAB numbers T-R-I reported yesterday morning). But there's still that "gap." He observes that “small market radio has trounced big market radio in 19 of the past 20 months”, with the average gap being about 5.8% for 2008-so-far. Boyle now thinks that “if the recession lasts for all of 2009 and the weakness persists in many of the major radio ad categories such as auto…then it may be 2010 or beyond before radio revives.” Then again, as one radio GM told me yesterday – “at least I’m not in television right now.”

Bayliss Foundation No Bayliss Roast for 2009.

You certainly don’t need to be told we’re in a long-term recession – but to have the Bayliss Foundation cancel the annual black-tie fundraising event is like having somebody put an exclamation mark on it. The one-year “hiatus” speaks volumes about the situation the radio industry’s in, because these things have going on for a couple of decades like clockwork, attracting a roomful of guys in tuxes ready to pay a whole bunch of money to laugh at the chosen “guest of dis-honor.” This year – there’s not much to laugh about. Foundation President Carl Butrum says the organization “is very much alive and well, and intends to stay that way.” It continues to grant scholarships for students interested in entering the radio business. More about the history and ongoing work of Bayliss here.

Interep It’s Interep’s day in court – with a possible path to salvation.

How much of Interep will its rival Katz get? We may start getting some answers when the bankruptcy trustee makes his scheduled appearance today and presents the Katz $3.64 million offer to negotiate with Interep clients and staffers. But could Katz swallow up all of Interep, if it wants to? Some folks around New York and the rep biz think there would be anti-trust problems. While another expert tells me “Hey, it’s in Chapter 7, why not let them merge?” Still no signals from CBS about what it might do, and it’s at least one-third of Interep’s revenue base. Of course the bankruptcy trustee has insisted that all Interep clients have valid contracts and they can’t bolt yet. CBS hasn’t previously shown signs of wanting to open its own shop. Maybe it still feels that way – but I’m told that at least two other parties have shown interest in buying all of Interep. Not just pieces. While another rep-firm veteran predicts “You’ll see the birth of several new boutique rep firms”, with Interep’s planetary blowup seeding new life forms. Make sure you’re signed up to get e-news alerts from Radio-Info.com, here.

The Road Charlie Cook is the new host of country’s syndicated “The Road.”

He’ll succeed Smokey Rivers of Cumulus-owned “Wolf” KPLX in Dallas (99.5), who took over the franchise in August 2007. Now United Stations chooses veteran Charlie Cook, and lands the station that Charlie programs in the bargain. That’s a very big “clear” – Saul Levine’s Los Angeles-market “Go Country” KKGO (105.1). The 15-year-old “Road” is one of those shows that really does bring concerts home to the listener, because it’s two hours of original live concert material, every week. Charlie buckles up in the driver’s seat starting the week of December 8.

More changes and consolidations looming at CBS Radio.

The recent headlines have been about staff-level tightening-up in markets like Hartford and Las Vegas, but I believe the focus may shift back to some of the bigger CBS markets next. I keep looking for the patterns, and one shift at CBS may be away from individual station GMs and more toward market managers and station-manager-level folks who work with most or all the stations in that cluster. There could be more consolidation in sales management. Also more doubling-up of PDs. Meanwhile – T-R-I will keep an eye peeled on the Houston swap situation with Clear Channel that I’ve been telling you about. One T-R-I reader raises the possibility of a format change in the eventual cluster of country KILT-FM (100.3), sports KILT (610), news/brokered KIKK (650), CHR “Hot Hits 95.7” KKHH – the former smooth jazz KHJZ – and potentially the two FMs from Clear Channel. Those are hot AC Mix 96.5 KHMX and Spanish hits Mega 101.1 KLOL. I believe Dan Mason’s been in Houston getting things squared away for a possible announcement of a station swap. See “Buzzing on the Message Boards” for some specifics about layoffs at CBS-Houston.

Soldier Salute Here’s how Connoisseur is doing “Soldier Salute” in six markets – and driving web traffic.

Who wouldn’t want to visit a station website when the radio tells you there’s a video from a local soldier stationed overseas, and the service member is sending holiday wishes? Connoisseur exec Peter Kosann tells T-R-I they’ve just started doing that in Billings, Bloomington, Erie, Huntington, Rapid City and Wichita across a total of 15 stations. Soldier Salute continues through year-end and Peter says it “boosts page views, serves the community and generates revenue.” See how Erie’s “Bob 94.7” WXBB is doing it, here.

Bubba the Love Sponge takes his Tampa track record into four new markets.

This is the story the Orlando board at Radio-Info.com has been on since last week – that Cox likes what it’s seeing with Bubba at “Bone” WHPT (102.5) Tampa and “Rock 105” WFYV, Jacksonville (104.5) and is adding the Florida-friendly morning show on its rock stations in Miami (WHDR/93.1) and Orlando (WHTQ/96.5). But that’s not all. Cox is also using Bubba up in Richmond on modern rock “Y101” WDYL (101.1). And it’s letting the show be syndicated outside the family on Beasley’s “96 K-Rock” WRXK (96.1) in Ft. Myers/Naples. And what’s not to like about Bubba’s ratings report cards in Tampa? He’s been #1 in all the Bone’s sales demos since his dramatic return to terrestrial radio in January. The Beasley sign-up indicates further syndication plans, and Bubba’s agent Thomas J. Bean is working on that very thing. Bubba says “We thank Cox for believing in us”, after Clear Channel dumped his show and he eventually landed a spot on one of the Sirius Howard Stern channels. And will that deal be renewed?

Forever Broadcasting Forever Broadcasting joins the belt-tightening brigade, ending the company’s 401(k) match.

I’m told last week’s staff meetings in upstate Pennsylvania included news about raises in 2009 (don’t expect them), the unexpected departure of familiar face Roger Cory from mornings at Altoona-market oldies WALY 103.9, and the loss of a company match for employees’ 401(k) retirement accounts. T-R-I is also told there’s a salesperson gone and that some current job openings won’t be filled. The economy is smacking companies at the big market-level and small markets, too. This version of Forever (Donald Alt, Kerby Confer) is in Altoona, State College, Johnstown and Meadville.

The latest Arbitrends for San Antonio, Austin, Jacksonville, New Orleans…

In San Antonio, there’s a virtual three-way tie for first place, with news/talk WOAI and urban “Beat” KBBT at identical 5.3 shares, and oldies KONO-AM/FM a breath away at a 5.2. In Jacksonville, the events leading up to November 4 – the election, that is – probably helped add a few pounds to the fighting weight of news/talk WOKV-AM/FM, and it jumped from a Summer-book 9.0 to a gaudy 10.7 share. Catch all of Monday’s Phase I Markets at the Ratings Page of Radio-Info.com, here.

» Arbitron Fall 2008 Phase I Arbitrends
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30. San Antonio - 1,626,500
42. Austin - 1,309,500
47. Jacksonville - 1,106,400
55. New Orleans - 929,300
56. Richmond - 924,700
80. Baton Rouge - 557,300

Click on the city to review recently released trends. View a complete list of Arbitron markets here.

» Buzzing on the Boards
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KHMX 96.5

Houston’s talking about the latest CBS-cluster cuts, including Hudson & Harrigan traffic reporter T.J. Callahan (who may still do part-time stuff), and 40-year newsman R.B. McEntire. The poster says R.B. was given the choice to work through December or leave before then. Discuss It

Houston’s also talking about the death of onetime Metro reporter Greg Dodson, who was reportedly found dead on Sunday at his house. Visitation is today with the funeral tomorrow.Discuss It

The Mississippi board says Jim Gregory sure-‘nuff started to work for Larry Fuss yesterday, his former boss from the Cleveland, MS stations Larry sold in 2003. Now Larry’s got move-in WKXY (92.1) on the air in the same neighborhood, and Jim’s working for him again, after leaving WMJW.Discuss It

KXTE 107.5

Las Vegas-market budget cuts by CBS get the attention of the Vegas board, which notices the exit of music director Homie and overnight talent Slater at modern rock KXTE (107.5).Discuss It

» Sound Bites
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Speaking of the disappearance of classic hits on KFRC (106.9) in San Francisco – are classic hits/oldies coming back elsewhere in the Bay Area? Heard that possibility just last week.

Wal-mart

Wal-Mart is #1 in Dallas – as a radio advertiser, says Media Monitors. And it’s been #1, looking at the latest Spot 10 chart for November 17-23. The giant retailer is followed by Liberman TV (spending on behalf of its Dallas-Ft. TV operation), Starpower Home Entertainment Systems, Boothe Eye Care & Laser Center and at #5, Home Depot. Media Monitors also releases the latest advertising patterns of the airline industry and guess who’s #1? It’s Mexicana Airlines. That’s followed by Porter Airlines, Southwest, Horizon Air and Emirates. Catch the latest Dwight Douglas report for Media Monitors (“Big D and Tarmacs”) here.

Big D & Bubba

Big D & Bubba hit the 50-station mark in morning syndication with the addition of Citadel-owned “Country 98” WXTA (97.9) in the Erie, PA market. They’re syndicated by Premiere. Expect to see more companies like Citadel add syndicated shows in even daylight shifts – and nobody’s working harder than Big D & Bubba themselves. They continue to create a separate afternoon show for Clear Channel’s WSIX, Nashville (97.9).

Stations in continuous measurement Arbitron markets are getting Winter 2009 Station Information Packets now…and Arbitron say they’re due back by December 8. Regardless of whether they’re subscribers, stations should check the pre-printed information (does the station still have the same call letters, same frequency, power, etc.?). The Winter 2009 book runs from January 8 to April 1.

» Wheeling and Dealing
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WMSX 1410

Outside Boston, there’s a unsightly haircut at WMSX, the 1410 facility licensed to Brockton, MA. The September 12 T-R-I newsletter told you about the takeback on a loan default by Hispanic Broadcasters – “the licensee owes $1,363,200 plus $500,000 in interest, $73,402 in back real estate taxes already paid by the lender, plus attorney’s fees.” That put the debt well over $1.9 million. The trust held the station on behalf of the Life Insurance Community Investment Initiative. Now comes the sale by the Hispanic Broadcasting Asset Trust run by trustee Susan Schlesinger. And the sale is for $540,000. There’s a $20,000 down payment from local Brockton buyer Kingdom Church, and then $520,000 more at closing. WMSX has 1-kw days and 156 watts at night. Presumably the church’s broadcasting effort, headed up by Alex Hurt, will switch it from its mix of apparently-brokered Spanish and ethnic programming to at least some Christian programming.

» Faces on the Radio
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Becky Sweeney leaves the Nashville offices of South Central Communications after five years, and her Director of Sales shoes (Crocs?) will be inherited by Local Sales Manager Craig Jones. Dennis Gwiazdon is the VP/GM of the cluster that includes soft AC “Mix 92.9” WJXA and “Jack 96.3” WCJK.

Sherman Kizart

Sherman Kizart put in his last day at Interep last Friday, after over a decade as one of its most visible presences in the African-American radio community. He was Senior VP of Urban Marketing and very involved in Interep’s urban outreach and education. He’s at SKKizart@prodigy.net.

Dave Symonds takes the Bill Cahill programming seat in Richmond, for Clear Channel. Bill’s now programming Washington, D.C.-market FMs WASH (97.1) and WBIG-FM (100.3). While Symonds takes Cahill’s post as Clear Channel’s programmer for Richmond.

KCMP 89.3

Jim McGuinn stays “Current”, as the new PD of Minnesota Public Public radio’s adult alternative “Current” KCMP (89.3) in Minneapolis-St. Paul. Incumbent Steve Nelson’s about to take over MPR’s News Network, and McGuinn brings his own major market experience, from programming in Philadelphia, St. Louis and Albany. Most recently, he’s been overseeing the surviving remnant of Philly’s “Y100” as the “Y-Rock on ‘XPN” service based at adult alternative non-com WXPN (88.5).

Bill Stedman comes back to South Florida – this is his fifth trip there – to program classic hits “Majic 102.7” WMXJ in Miami, succeeding Bob Hamilton. The Senior VP/GM there is Dennis Collins.

Dave Charity has died, and several veterans of WPLJ and the New York radio community have contacted T-R-I about what a pro he was to work with. Dave also worked at the former SW Network’s Smooth FM service, at WALL in Middletown, NY and in the voiceover business. Discuss It

Sins – re: Monday’s story about public radio’s “Infinite Mind” show. It’s not exactly an “NPR” show. National Public Radio uses the health-and-science show on its “NPR Now” Sirius channel. But it doesn’t distribute “Mind” to its terrestrial radio member stations. That’s handled by Lichtenstein Creative Media. Re: Friday’s story about J.R. Ammons, the new PD at Lincoln Financial’s WSTR, Atlanta – J.R. is coming back to Atlanta from Cox Radio’s WAPE in Jacksonville, and the Big Ape’s frequency is 95.1, not 94.1.

Is T-R-I more readable, layout wise? We're working on it, and thanks for all the T-R-I readers who dropped me an email to Tom@in3media.com. Same address for newstips - and see you back tomorrow.

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In this issue »

Arbitrons

Buzzing on the Boards

Sound Bites

Wheeling and Dealing

Faces on the Radio

News Tips »

Changes in your market? Send format updates, personnel changes, or other radio news to tom@in3media.com.

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