A year ago, the CHR success of “Turbo-Pop” and an ever increasing amount of Rhythmic Pop lured Hot AC closer to Mainstream Top 40’s orbit. Now, there are signs of the Adult Top 40 format moving back to its traditional pop/rock/singer-songwriter sound of the last 15 years. What’s less clear is the degree of the shift and whether it’s conscious, or a function of available product.

While some once-core artists are still hovering below the top 10, this week’s Radio-Info/Mediaguide Hot AC top 10 does feature Daughtry, the Script, Gavin Degraw, Colbie Caillat, Lady Antebellum, a softer Kelly Clarkson record, and Adele, who has turned out to be a game changer for several formats this year. The only song that would have been uncharacteristic for the format a few years ago is Gym Class Heroes’ “Stereo Hearts” and even that has a core artist attached, in the form of Maroon 5’s Adam Levine.

There is still dance/pop on the Hot AC chart, but the biggest songs in that genre are a little further down than they were last December. There’s nothing with the top 10 consensus that Taio Cruz’s “Dynamite,” had built at this time a year ago. And Maroon 5’s “Moves Like Jagger” is the only record with the sonic edginess that “Teenage Dream” and “Raise Your Glass” offered last fall. While Adult Top 40 chart reporters span from those that could as easily be Mainstream to those who are more traditionally Modern AC, the consensus records between them are pop/rock.

Interscope national director of Hot AC Mike Justin only sees the landscape as “a little more pop/rock than in the last few years.” But, he adds, “Most of the music at the top is more in line with Hot AC than the music that has gotten a big start at Top 40 and just naturally crossed over on its own.”

“Hot AC is getting back to what it was meant to be—variety.” says Patricia Morris, VP of Adult Format Promotion for Capitol Records. “Two years ago, the pendulum swung very rock. The format got burned out on the sound and the swing happened again [to a more pop/rhythmic feel]. Fortunately, right now, there is a tremendous variety and balance at the format and Capitol is living proof. We have four unique records in the Top 20 right now—Coldplay, Lady Antebellum, Katy Perry, and David Guetta.”

Columbia Senior VP Promotion/Adult Formats Pete Cosenza has a similar take. “A lot of the Adult Top 40 programmers got enamored with the whole pop sound and they went too far, but they didn’t realize it at the time. It took the sound getting out of balance. Maybe it took some stations taking a hit in the ratings to make people felt they abandoned the base of the format—hit songs from adult/pop hit artists.

“Some of the artists, whether John Mayer or Daughtry or Train, who have traditionally been core and still had successful careers had taken a back seat where they had to wait for a slot for a few weeks behind the ear candy pop records,” Cosenza continues. “That put stations out of balance and certainly affected the charts.”

RCA Senior VP/Adult Music Adrian Moreira notes, “While it’s still challenging to get guitar-based records played at both Top 40 and Hot AC, what I sense is that no station in any format can afford to [rely entirely on] very young-end, rhythmic, dance-y, pure pop records. With pop being more rhythmic than ever, there’s a real opportunity for Hot ACs to differentiate themselves from their pop competition and take some ownership of records with artists who are big with their core, whether it’s Daughtry or Nickelback, or the Fray or the Script. People still love rock and roll, and ‘guitar’ is not and should not be a dirty word.”

Myra Dehais, who oversees adult format promotion/artist development for RED Distribution, sees a more mixed picture. “I feel like the shift at Hot AC depends on the flow and trend of the music available. It also depends on the market. I have spoken to heavy rock/alternative markets [that are now] seeing better results from the alt/rock leaning songs again. But recently, I was in a few Southeast markets that are having much bigger success with the Rhythmic Pop records.”

Radio Responds

“My impression is that it’s what’s available. We’re not making a conscious decision here,” says Cumulus Media Senior VP Mike McVay. “The lack of Dr. Luke-sounding hits is more a function of what hit records are available at the moment. I am sure that when Pink comes out with new Dr. Luke music, we will be all over it,” says KDMX (Mix 102.9) Dallas PD Jay Michaels.

But Scott Lindy, PD of WSTR (Star 94) Atlanta, thinks there’s a shift and it’s “definitely on purpose. Available product for Hot AC does play into it, but there is a needed point of musical differentiation for Hot ACs as they compete with CHRs that is more [driven by] programming decisions.

“Hot AC has the best of all worlds, being able to play big hit/pop-oriented songs (or remixed versions) from Country, the hipper artists that dominate the AC chart, and the CHR titles that don’t smack of teeny bopper lyrics or heavy rhythmic sonic qualities. For that reason, Hot AC is a super hot mainstream format right now,” Lindy adds.

And Michaels also says, “Hot AC hits from Colbie, The Script and Gavin Degraw have helped give the format some uniqueness while still playing hit records.”

Interscope’s Justin is careful to put any shift in perspective by looking at it over more than a year’s time. He notes that there are still plenty of takers for acts like LMFAO who are serviced, but not actively worked to Adult Top 40. “I do think overall Hot AC is a much more pop-oriented format than when I started doing Hot AC four years ago. Just maybe not as much as last year.”

Gearing Up For 2012

Cosenza, however, is optimistic about the reception for upcoming new music from John Mayer, Train (whose “Drive By” comes out after the first of the year) and current U.K. hitmaker Rebecca Ferguson. “I feel so great about releasing a new artist at this time because of what’s happened in the last six months to a year. It’s going to be a little easier row-to-hoe for her because of that,” he says of Ferguson.

Morris adds, “I’m more excited about the future of this format than I’ve ever been, especially because there are programmers that will champion new songs before they are ‘chart ripe,’ and that is vital for Hot AC if we are going to lay claim to breaking new talent.” She notes that “we are in setup on Matt Nathanson’s ‘Run’ and yet both [KLLC San Francisco PD] Michael Martin and [KSCF San Diego PD] Charese Fruge are ahead of the curve on it.”