When the only Mainstream AC in the market goes away, who benefits?

That’s not a question that most programmers would have expected to be confronted with a few years ago. But it has become an issue in several markets over the past few years, most notably in the midwest where longtime AC WLTE (Lite 102.9) Minneapolis, recently became “Buz’n Country” KMNB, leaving a hole between Oldies/Greatest Hits KQQL (Kool 108), Adult Hits KZJK (Jack FM), and Hot AC KSTP-FM (KS95).

It seemed like a good time to look at Kansas City, which lost two Mainstream AC stations shortly after the 2010 holidays. Longtime AC KUDL became simulcast Talk outlet KMBZ-FM, and sought to steer its audience to a new Hot AC sister station, KZPT (The Point). KCKC (Star 102.1), meanwhile, switched to Triple-A as “Alice 102.1.”

The after-effects of the change continued through the 2011 holiday season when KCKC’s sister station, KFKF (Country 94.1), picked up the holiday music franchise that had been shared by Star and KUDL. In doing so, KFKF became the first true Country radio Christmas success story, up 5.6–6.8 in the December PPM, capturing much of the 7.5 shared by its two AC predecessors a year earlier, despite a decidedly Country-flavored holiday mix.

With the help of Arbitron Director of Programming Services Jon Miller, “25+” took a look at different ratings data from over the course of the year in an effort to track how listening had settled (and resettled)).

Whose Shares Grew?

Between KUDL’s 3.4 share 6-plus and Star’s 2.9, the two Mainstream ACs accounted for more than six shares of listening in November ’10—which would have been a pretty good existence for any one station able to control it all. So between November ’10 and November ’11, which stations showed net share gains?

KLRX (K-Love) (Christian AC) +2.2
KMXV (Mix 93.3) (CHR) + 2.0
KCFX (The Fox) (Classic Rock) +0.8
KCMO-FM (Oldies/Greatest Hits) +0.7
KFKF (Country) +0.5
KZPT (Hot AC) +0.5
KCKC (Triple-A) -0.4

Mix 93.3, long an adult-leaning CHR, isn’t an unlikely destination for former AC listeners—especially at a time when CHR is showing its greatest appeal in decades. However, Mix had been underperforming in late 2010 and its rise coincides with a 1.5 share drop at rival KCHZ (95.7 The Vibe).

KLRX, the local affiliate of the Christian AC “K-Love” network, actually showed even greater growth through much of the year, growing from a 3-share to a 5.7 at its peak in August.

Oldies/Greatest Hits KCMO began this measurement period at a 5.7 and peaked at a 7.1 in September, before leveling to a 6.4.

KFKF (Country 94.1), the oldest-skewing and most gold-based of Kansas City’s three Country stations, went from a 5.1 last November to a 5.9 in August, its non-holiday peak. With two stations slugging it out for the “new Country” franchise, KFKF is a yesterday-and-today Country station with an ’80s/early ’90s component of the sort that doesn’t exist in every market.

KZPT, which had a 2.4 with the Gen-X format last November, grew 2.0–3.9 between March and April and got as far as a 4.3 share in July before starting to level off to its current pre-holiday 2.9. Despite seeking KUDL cume, KZPT was a much hotter radio station, and the eventual leveling was typical of what one might have expected if there had been an AC-to-Hot-AC (or CHR-to-Hot-AC) change on the same frequency. A recent NielsenBDS monitor shows that it has since sanded off some of its harder/rappier edges, separating itself further from Mix 93.3.

Where The P1s Went

We tracked listening more directly with the help of Arbitron’s Miller, who analyzed listening by the November ’10, pre-holiday P1s of KCKC and KUDL. Initially, both stations saw the biggest piece of their P1 listening going to a sister station:

“By April 2011, the KCKC P1s that remained in the panel were listening most often to KFKF, KBEQ and [Urban] KPRS in that order. Country seems to be the beneficiary of KCKC flipping formats,” Miller says.

“By April 2011, the KUDL P1s that remained in the panel were clearly listening most often to KZPT and a little bit to KFKF. KZPT was the clear beneficiary of the format flip.”

It’s interesting that KCMO-FM, one of the healthiest Oldies/Greatest Hits outlets, wasn’t a more obvious beneficiary in this particular measurement. As Mainstream AC breaks away from ’70s gold and Greatest Hits stations continue to modernize, the latter format is sometimes seen as the direct successor to the “old” Mainstream AC. Then again, many of the AC listeners who prefer the ’70s/early ’80s have already made the move in many markets, explaining why a station might want to modernize or give up the AC franchise altogether.

WHERE THE CUME WENT

Not enough of the November ’10 P1s to either station remained part of the panel long enough to track them through the fall. But Miller was able to track cume from October/November 2010 to a year later. Of the 176 panelists (out of 988) who cumed KUDL or KCKC in 2010 and remained in the panel:

120 cumed KCFX
105 cumed KCMO-FM
99 cumed KMXV
92 cumed KCHZ
90 cumed KZPT

FORECASTING MINNEAPOLIS

So who is the most likely beneficiary of WLTE’s demise? Lite’s last month of regular programming drew a 3.1 share 6-plus, although its holiday programming got an 8.1 share in December. CBS is hoping that its cume, including listeners from Country rival KEEY (K102), will give it the same sort of big launch that AC CJEZ (EZ-Rock 97) Toronto was able to give “Greatest Hits” successor Boom 97.3. Buz’n is a different, less AC flavored station than KFKF; it emphasizes “New Country” but does have a ’90s/early ’00s component

WLTE had already phased out most of its ’70s product. (Like KUDL, part of its long-term issue was not a failure to modernize as much as the challenge of making listeners aware that a heritage soft AC had modernized.) If fans of the stations older/softer mix hadn’t made a move already, Greatest Hits KQQL (Kool 108) would be another likely destination, or Classic Hits rival KQRS. And judging from the Kansas City numbers, Christian AC KTIS has to be watched for likely growth as well.

Disclosure: my other employer, Edison Research, works with KZPT owner Entercom.