“American Idol” is down to its final three contestants, and for the first time ever two of the three finalists are aspiring toward careers in country music. Whatever the outcome, it’s likely both of them—17-year-old Scotty McCreery and 16-year-old Lauren Alaina—will land Nashville record deals and get worked to country radio within the next year. In fact, the A&R team at Universal Music Group Nashville is already actively looking for songs for both teens. (They’re joined in the top three by 20-year-old Haley Reinhart, who has expressed no preference for country music at all.)

But country radio broadcasters may not throw open their doors to these kids. In fact, if he doesn’t come with an undeniable hit single, McCreery in particular may meet with a lukewarm or even chilly reception in some markets, where certain programmers have been turned off by his frequent Josh Turner impersonating performances and quirky mannerisms.

McCreery has performed Turner songs so often on the show that for the finalist’s hometown visit on Saturday, Turner showed up on stage as a surprise and sang “Your Man” and “Long Black Train” with him in Garner, N.C., in front of a reported 30,000 fans.

But last week, KPLX (The Wolf) Dallas APD Smokey Rivers spoke for many when he posted a photo on Facebook of a crazy-eyed McCreery gesturing into the camera during a performance, and captioned it “This could be our next ‘American Idol?’ Seriously?”

We turned again to Facebook to gauge the industry’s reaction to McCreery and Alaina, asking people for their thoughts on the future of these two teens in the country format. The reaction was largely negative, particularly toward McCreery. But one widely respected programmer, KEEY (K102) Minneapolis’ Gregg Swedberg, had a completely different view.

Rivers predicts both Idols will have a “one and done” career, a reference to the number of albums they’ll ever get to release.

Two programmers, WFRE Frederick, Md., PD Jess Wright and KUZZ Bakersfield, Calif., MD Toni-Marie, already have other plans for the day a label rep wants to bring McCreery by their stations for a visit.

Says Wright, “If Scotty McCreery gets signed, I’m gonna need to change my phone number.”

Adds Toni-Marie, “I’m calling in sick the day they bring Scotty by on radio tour.” Later in the discussion, she adds, “I just know that when the call comes in that they want to bring him in, it will be forwarded to [PD Evan Bridwell] STAT!”

Both women go on to explain their objections to the singer. Referencing another former “Idol” contestant, Wright says, “Carrie Underwood actually had talent from the beginning. Scotty really doesn’t. For him, being on ‘American Idol’ is only a blessing because it’s the only thing the label will be able to point to as a reason to play his music.”

Adds Toni-Marie, “I wish people would quit comparing this kid to Josh Turner. He attempts to sound like him, but the only thing he is successful at is looking like the kid on MAD magazines… Maybe Scotty does have some potential. I don’t see it, but he needs someone to teach him to be who Scotty is. Quit doing JT covers and doing that weird eye thing that only Queen Reba can get away with.”

WCTQ Sarasota, Fla., PD Tim Jones says, “We already have Josh Turner. Don’t need another one. Take him to another format.”

“Scotty just hasn’t demonstrated that he has his own sound,” says Journal Broadcast Group director of country programming Beverlee Brannigan. “And why the judges haven’t called him on it is beyond me. Oh, wait, that’s right, none of them know a single thing about country (and Western?)”

Adds KIIM Tucson, Ariz., PD Buzz Jackson, “Scotty hasn’t demonstrated that he can be anything but creepy.”

“I had a conversation two days ago with a club owner who was convinced Scotty would be a superstar,” says KRMD Shreveport, La., PD James Anthony. “I don’t hear it.”

Agrees Dial Global’s “Country Today” format morning man Scott Gaines, “I don’t see the Scotty attraction; haven’t since he started. I don’t think he has what it takes to survive in the business. Lauren has a great voice, but is really young. If she had good mentor coaching she could do well.”

Toni-Marie also has somewhat more positive comments about Alaina. “I think Lauren could take it, but she is still very young and I don’t know that she can handle it yet. Maybe with the right people behind her and parents who hopefully brought her up well, she can do it.”

KJJY Des Moines, Iowa, MD Eddie Hatfield agrees. “Lauren has a shot if she’s handled correctly. People seem to like her. There will be a curiosity factor on Scotty’s first single. If it isn’t great, that will be it for him.

“A country ‘American Idol’s’ career is fleeting, and mediocre at best,” Hatfield continues. “Except for Carrie. She is one in a million. And Carrie can sing better than any newbie in any genre. She’s got the chops and stands head and shoulders above anyone else.”

WPPL Blue Ridge, Ga., MD Jim Quinton is also a bigger fan of Alaina than McCreery. “I think Lauren has a good shot, depending on the tunes they pick for her,” he says. “She sings very well, and seems to have a great personality too. Scotty seems like a great kid but, honestly, I just don’t hear anything from him that makes him stand out to me. Unfortunately, I think I’ve seen way too much of the videos of him singing ‘Baby lock them doors and turn the lights down low’ for him to be anything other than a Josh Turner sound-alike to me.”

Both Tony Randall and Kris Rochester of the syndicated Tony & Kris morning show also weighed in separately on the topic. For McCreery, Randall predicts, “A decent launch from the ‘Idol’ fans, then a quick crash and burn. He doesn’t have it. Lauren is a doll and very talented, [but] needs some more experience. [She’s] young and fragile, and it shows.”

Rochester, meanwhile, says there’s “way more talent performing on Broadway in Nashville every night” than on this season’s “American Idol.”

Joining the fray with what he calls an old school opinion, Show Dog-Universal Music’s Greg Sax says, “I don’t think Hank done it this way! Even if ‘Idol’ existed then, you would never have found Waylon, Willie, Johnny, Merle, Loretta or Tammy on that show. They had style and originality that Scotty and Lauren don’t possess.”

Swedberg, on the other hand, is a fan of each of the teens. “Maybe I’m nuts, but I love both of them,” he says. “Scotty is more than just a Josh Turner clone… Lauren still needs to get some experience, but the girl can sing. It all comes down to the songs. If they’re smart (and they are), they’ll get the best songs they can, because a 25 million person launch pad is nothing to sneeze at.”

Then Swedberg quite correctly makes the rest of us feel like jerks for picking on teenagers.

“Just a reminder: Scotty’s 17, and he’s a pretty good showman at that age,” Swedberg says. “How can he NOT get even better? Is he as good a vocalist as Joe Diffie? Well, nobody is. Is he as good as some of our format’s stars? Sure he is. [It’s] always bizarre when our format rejects any idea not born on the Row. Can he write? I don’t know, that’s not what this show is all about. And if he can’t write yet, do we know that he will never write? He’s 17. How many artists (besides Taylor) get that kind of shot before they can vote?

“I just think it’s silly to unconditionally reject him,” Swedberg adds. “It’s all about the songs. If they get him the songs, if he can do a good job choosing them, if he learns to write them himself, if he gets the music, he’ll make it. And I figure that rather than shooting holes in it before it starts, let’s see what the kid can do.”

Meet The Contenders

Contestant: Lauren Alaina
Age: 16
Hometown: Rossville, Ga.
Musical influence: Carrie Underwood
Looks like: Her look-alike mom, frequently shown in the audience
Sounds like: Herself, fortunately, except when she tries to channel Miranda Lambert
Strengths: Young, pretty and a talented vocalist, despite the occasional wobble
Weaknesses: In the first half of the competition it looked like overconfidence, as if she’d always been the best singer in her school and thought that applied to the national stage as well. In the latter half, however, she’s shown the strain this kind of competition can have on someone so young, and seems to live in mortal terror of being sent home.

Contestant: Scotty McCreery
Age: 17
Hometown: Garner, N.C.
Musical influences: Johnny Cash, Hank Williams, Conway Twitty, Elvis Presley
Looks like: MAD magazine’s Alfred E. Newman
Sounds like: Josh Turner (he hopes)
Strengths: Youth, and a boy-next-door charm. Clearly a vote magnet, he’s never been in the show’s bottom three.
Weaknesses: Lacks originality in style and substance. His one-trick-pony performances are incredibly derivative of the singers he tries to emulate, particularly Turner.