In recent years, the summer songs derby has become a big part of labels’ marketing plans. Since March, there’s been a new candidate popping up in my inbox every few days—often tagged in the e-mail as “the summer song of 2010.” That parade of major artist releases continues—a new T.I. and a new Ne-Yo within a few hours of each other on Tuesday. And looking over this week’s most added at Top 40, starting with Jason Derulo’s “Riding Solo” and Enrique Iglesias’ “I Like It,” there’s nothing that doesn’t have that summer song feel. You‘ll scroll down well into those songs with single-digit adds before finding a ballad: a big change from 2005 when some were actually willing to give the summer song crown to “We Belong Together” by Mariah Carey.

There’s also no shortage of summer-themed songs. In Country, there are at least six songs with warm weather titles receiving significant airplay. On the pop side, there’s Mayday Parade’s “Kids In Love,” VV Brown’s “Shark In The Water,” and, on the way, Jessie James’ “Boys In The Summer” and last year’s Canadian hit, “Summer Girl” by the Stereos, to name just a few. Michael Franti, last year’s upset contender with “Say Hey (I Love You)” is back with both the no-less-summery “Shake It” and a Triple-A single called “Sound Of Summer.”

And then there’s “California Gurls” by Katy Perry f/Snoop Dogg, the clear front-runner since its release less than three weeks ago. Entertainment Weekly, which waded into the Summer Song fray last year, just wrote a story coronating Perry instead of even naming other candidates. Many of the Top 40 programmers we reached out to are already on Team Katy, but it’s not unanimous. And there were even a few like WPOW (Power 96) Miami’s Tom Calococci who felt that nothing as obvious as Black Eyed Peas’ “I Gotta Feeling,” an early June entrant last year, had emerged yet. But any other Summer Song of 2010 winner is going to be a big upset.

So what makes a Summer Song contender? Timing is key—you’ll continue to hear “O.M.G.,” “Your Love Is My Drug ””Nothin’ On You,” and“ Alejandro” through the summer, but for the purposes of this column, we’re looking at songs whose chart run will most overlap with summer. Tempo is a must—a loping, midtempo tropical number might qualify, but “We Belong Together” does not. Summer themes help, but they’re not a must. After all, the genius of “I Gotta Feeling” wasn’t in being one of many summer songs, it was in being the only one made to play at Bar Mitzvahs.

So now the contenders, starting with those that are in play now:

Katy Perry f/Snoop Dogg, “California Gurls” – It’s up by more than 2,100 Top 40 spins at BDS this week, heading into the summer with even more steam than “I Kissed A Girl” and none of that song’s attendant controversy. And at 23-12 on the Mainstream Top 40 chart, it could be No. 1 before the first callout even comes in. “Katy will pretty much run away with the summer song prize there, won’t she? What a great, great song,” says KSLZ (Z107.7)/KSDD St. Louis PD Jeff McHugh. But some have told us they miss the edge of Perry’s previous hits. And look for any song gives the retro-feeling “Gurls” a battle to have some of that shock-of-the-new that “SexyBack” had in a summer of retro releases.

B.O.B. f/Hayley Williams, “Airplanes” – “Top 40 stations (and Rhythmic Top 40 too, in all probability) are going to have ‘Airplanes’ in power rotation for the next two or three months. It’s going to be bigger than ‘Nothin’ On You,’ no small feat that,” says KKHH (Hot 95.7) Houston PD Mark Adams. And it’s not even B.O.B.’s only contender.

Enrique Iglesias f/Pitbull, “I Like It” – It has the “Jersey Shore” connection and that slightly, pleasantly off-kilter feeling that “SexyBack” had at first. Wherever it places in the summer derby, it’s still the likely winner of the Kid Rock comeback award.

Travie McCoy, “Billionaire” – The breezy, tropical contender. “And, because, who doesn’t want to be?” writes Hz So Good’s Rich Appel.

3Oh!3 f/Ke$ha, “My First Kiss” – “This summer’s ‘Good Girls Go Bad,’ says WSTW Wilmington, Del., APD/MD Mike Rossi. And just part of why Ke$ha will be as ubiquitous this summer as Lady Gaga was last year. LaRoux, “Bulletproof” – The U.K.’s summer hit of 2009. Despite that pre-sale, it’s only now becoming an obvious hit for U.S. PDs.

Miley Cyrus, “Can’t Be Tamed” – “Just a wild, fun, ‘I’m young and crazy song,’” says McHugh of Cyrus’ move toward a harder edge.

White Tie Affair, “You Look Better When I’m Drunk” – For Hz So Good’s Rich Appel, this is the “Good Girls Go Bad” successor.

Nickelback, “This Afternoon” – Like “All Summer Long,” it bided its time on an album. Like “All Summer Long,” it’s become a hit wherever played. Still facing some rhythmic-leaning major-market resistance; (Kid had the Detroit homebase of WKQI on his side as an entry to other similar markets). But it was my first prediction this year and I’m sticking with it.

Brand New

Taio Cruz, “Dynamite” – “I love it. Very catchy,” writes Billboard chart manager Silvio Pietroluongo. Also gets a nod from WPOW (Power 96) Miami’s Tom Calacocci.

Jason Derulo, “Ridin’ Solo” – There have been summer hits about not having a summer love before (“See You In September,” “Cruel Summer”), but is this the first one that’s happy about it?

T.I. f/Keri Hilson, “Got Your Back” – And is this the first summer song to mention going to church on Sunday? (It’s mentioned in the casual way that a Country hit would.)

Ne-Yo, “Beautiful Monster” – “Smash,” declares WHTZ (Z100) New York PD Sharon Dastur, who had it on the air immediately. And if it’s not the summer song, it has a pretty good shot at being this year’s Halloween “Thriller.”

On The Way

B.O.B. f/Weezer, “Magic” – Already generating as many comments as “Airplanes” from WIOQ (Q102) Philadelphia PD Tim “Romeo” Herbster and others, and more summery/uptempo. “Should be the song of the summer,” says WIHT (Hot 99.5) Washington, D.C., APD/MD Toby Knapp.

Ke$ha, “Take It Off” – Even with “Your Love Is My Drug” in play, “Open House Party” host John Garabedian has been tipping the more overtly party-themed “Take It Off” for months.

Usher f/Pitbull, “DJ Got Us Falling In Love Again” – Not on the first version of the “Raymond vs. Raymond” album but scheduled for a mid-June release. If “O.M.G.” was a departure, this clubby Max Martin composition makes it feel like Regina Belle or Babyface by comparison.

Maroon 5, “Misery” – About a month away but already getting a lot of mentions. “It’s being produced by Mutt Lange, so I know it’s gonna hit hard,” says KQKQ (Q98.5) Omaha, Neb., OM Nevin Dane.

Santana f/Rob Thomas, “Sunshine Of Your Love” – As seemingly unlikely a candidate for radio ubiquity as, well, “Smooth.” But despite being from a forthcoming album of Classic Rock covers, this is an astoundingly contemporary update.

And Some Left Fielders

Dirty Heads f/Rome of Sublime, “Lay Me Down” – Already a No. 1 song at Modern Rock. Just needs to get Top 40’s attention now a little faster than “Santeria,” which took a decade to insinuate itself into gold libraries.

Train, “If It’s Love” – It has power-chords, even more tempo, and the same sort of “let’s write a radio hit” calculation as “Hey Soul Sister.” But it could certainly take much of the summer to move into position at Mainstream Top 40.

Uncle Kracker & Kid Rock, “Good To Be Me” – For the many readers who were upset about my giving the 2008 award to “I Kissed A Girl” and not “All Summer Long,” Kid and Kracker are back. Just starting at Adult Top 40 now.

Buckcherry, “All Night Long” – Will have to make its way over from Active Rock, but it’s their most obvious party/spirit-of-AC/DC song since “Lit Up.”

LMFAO f/Lil Jon, “Shots” – Might seem strange to mention a record that had its run earlier this year. But call this one the likely under-the-radar hit of summer 2010, having become a cultural phenomenon without much airplay. And if that’s a surprising statement, wait until you’re at a party this summer and somebody makes even the most oblique reference to drinking.

Programmers Weigh In

A few other programmers’ predictions:

Z100’s Dastur: Burnham’s “Catch Me If You Can.” (Think Justin Bieber goes teen punk.)

Q102’s Herbster: “It’s all about those fist-pump anthems this summer.” He also cites David Guetta’s “Gettin’ Over You,” Black Eyed Peas’ “Rock That Body,” Rihanna’s “Rock Star 101,” and “I’m also rooting for Kat DeLuna’s ‘Push Push’ as an underdog.”

OHP’s Garabedian: A long list with many of the aforementioned that also includes Adam Lambert’s “If I Had You,” Mike Posner’s “Cooler Than Me” and Drake’s “Find Your Love.”

WKSC (Kiss 103.5) Chicago PD Rick Vaughn: DJ Khaled’s “All I Do Is Win”

WDJQ (Q92) Canton, Ohio’s John Stewart: Sara Barelles’ “King Of Anything,” Richard Visson & the Static Revengers’ “I Like That,” Alpha Rev’s “New Morning,” OneEskimo’s “Kandi.”

FM107.9 Oxford, U.K.’s Joe Thomas: U.K. rapper Dizzee Rascal’s “Dirtee Disco.”

Emmis VP of programming/KPWR (Power 106) Los Angeles PD Jimmy Steal starts with B.O.B./“Magic” and then goes left-field with Josh Ritter’s “Lantern,” Tracy Thorn’s “Hormones,” Jonsi’s “Go,” Band Of Horses’ “Compliments” and Sidechild’s “Come On, Come On”

Q98.5’s Dane: Maroon 5, Posner, Muse’s new “Twilight” single, “Neutron Star Collision” for its “Bohemian Rhapsody”-like feel.

KUBE Seattle MD Eric Tyler: Mayday Parade’s “Kids In Love.”

Readers Respond

“I like to think of LCD Soundsystem’s ‘Drunk Girls’ as the 2010 summer song for smart snobby people.” — Larry Pareigis

“La Roux was a huge hit for dance radio last summer.” — Bret Holcomb, PD WBZC Burlington County, N.J.

“It’s a sleeper, but I like the LoCash Cowboys' ‘Here Comes Summer.’”—Hal Widsten, GM, KWED Seguin, Texas.

“2010’s summer song will be out in a week or two. Nothing yet.” — Larry LeKool

“Oh, it’s Katy Perry, no doubt. I knew it was a smash the first time I heard it.” — Libby Zabiriskie-Farr, WNTR Indianapolis